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198 
AXNT20 KNHC 130001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EXTENDS FROM 17N21W TO 
08N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 05N-17N. THE WAVE HAS A DRY 
SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 20W-
30W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 09N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N 
OF 12N HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N81W TO 
10N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-
86W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E PACIFIC FROM 
20N90W TO 09N92W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
NEAR 09N19W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
FROM 09N25W TO 06N40W TO 07N50W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 
06N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE... 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 30W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N 
BETWEEN 85W-92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF E OF E 
TEXAS...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W 
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA 
...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
METIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA... 
HISPANIOLA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 
20N82W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CUBA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                             
 
EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LESSER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                        
       
A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
37N51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE 
CENTER FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 55W-62W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WEATHER 
IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND LITTLE CHANGE 
ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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