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812 
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 18/0300 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 38.7N 
48.2W OR ABOUT 896 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 26 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N15W TO 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB AND SAL IMAGERY 
SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY THICK 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 6N-14N EAST OF 
29W. THE GLD LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW SCATTERED LIGHTING 
STROKES FROM 11N-14N EAST OF 20W INDICATING ALSO SOME CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL WAVE AXIS.
 
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 10N42W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE 
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE 
REGION WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NOTED 
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 36W-43W. THE REST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT 
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 25N57W TO 10N60W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE LIMITED TO THE 
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW 
LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS 
HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 
11N27W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
10N44W AND CONTINUES TO 9N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 
51W-57W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES 
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW 
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 
TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WED THROUGH THU MORNING...ENHANCING 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL 
SHEAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A 1015 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS ANCHORED NEAR 28N91W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS 
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER FRONT WILL STALL 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 
TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF 
ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A 
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 73W-82W AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON 
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO ON 
THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A 
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT 
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU MORNING...ACROSS HISPANIOLA 
FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI BEING 
SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION AS WELL 
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND INCREASE BY FRIDAY 
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
                               
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A 
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 68W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO 
ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS OF NORTHERN CUBA. 
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE 
WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE 
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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