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644 
AXNT20 KNHC 291104
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W AT 29/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 65 NM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 68W-75W. THE MAIN IMPACT 
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS W HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL 
WATERS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES. SEE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AFRICAN COAST. ITS AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 19N16W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N16W TO 07N15W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 12W-20W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A 
1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N44W. THE WAVE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N42W TO 08N45W. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING W 
AT ABOUT 15-20 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB AS 
INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 45W-48W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N52W TO 09N58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 
700 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-18N 
BETWEEN 55W-60W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
11N15W TO 09N22W TO 12N36W TO 10N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 12N56W. ASIDE 
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 46W-51W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N89W EXTENDS ITS TROUGH SW INTO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 25N88W. UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
E GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EXTENDING FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS S OF 21N AND W OF 94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A 
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 
THE SE GULF AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS AND KEYS. 
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE 
CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
MAINLY N OF 20N AND W OF 79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAIN 
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 17N83W 
COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS 
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-NE TRADES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO ERIKA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR ERIKA TO MOVE NW INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH 
CONVECTION.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                               

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ERIKA ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF THE STORM 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA THEN INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           

MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC IS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 
73W...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 22N 
BETWEEN 69W-75W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS...THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR 
30N67W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 26N37W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE 
ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 29W-34W. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA




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