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519 
AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
                        
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND 
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800 
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N 
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W. 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR 
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF 
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE 
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG 
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW 
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE 
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR 
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. 
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL 
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  
   
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING 
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 
FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N 
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W 
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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