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128 
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH 
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE 
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER 
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND 
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE 
SECTION ABOVE.
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE 
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND 
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO 
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO 
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO 
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS 
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW 
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES 
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG 
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER 
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW 
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER 
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS 
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND 
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS 
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING 
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED 
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO 
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE 
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER 
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS 
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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