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253 
AXNT20 KNHC 021031
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N45W TO 3N46W 
MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE 
ITCZ. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES/E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 
19N60W TO 10N63W MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED 
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 
13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-63W INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 62W-66W. 
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N20W 7N28W TO 8N34W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N40W TO E OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
7N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
11N BETWEEN 39W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 18W-26W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...                                              

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 
25N87W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO 
THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY CONTINUING TO 28N85W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE E BAY OF 
CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE EXITING THE GULF LATE THIS 
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
FRI MORNING AND REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 
MEXICAN COAST BY SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR 
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA ALONG 14N69W TO CENTRAL 
AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT 
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 
81W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E 
OF 83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                             
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS 
GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT 
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC 
W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 
32N65W TO 26N67W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW E OF BERMUDA NEAR 
32N63W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 28N65W 26N72W TO 27N77W 
WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 28N79W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 
MELBOURNE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N 
BETWEEN 75W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE E OF THE 
ABOVE UPPER TROUGH AND W OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO 29N53W. THIS UPPER 
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W 
ALONG 28N64W TO BEYOND 32N60W AND AND FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 46W-
60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N43W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
VICINITY OF A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N30W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL 
REACH FROM 31N56W TO 26N67W THEN BECOME DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
TO 27N74W EARLY FRI BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW PORTIONS SAT REACHING FROM NEAR 
31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW




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