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447 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED SEP 2 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
HURRICANE JIMENA IS W OF THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 
142.2W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 16N TO 19N W OF 139W. LARGE SEAS 
GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A LARGE PORTION OF FORECAST 
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N136W TO 19N133W TO 08N140W...WITH 
HIGHEST SEAS ESTIMATED AT 24 FT NEAR 18M140W. MOST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE FORECAST AREA. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS SHIFTING W OF 140W LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST CPHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 115.1W 1005 
MB AT 0900 UTC MOVING NNW 335 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. 
THE SYSTEM APPEARS POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT A 
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM NE OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY 
TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND WEAKENING OCCURS 
W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N82W TO 10N94W TO 
09N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 84W-93W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N154W 
EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE 
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF JIMENA AND 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO 
SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N130W TO 03N122W TO 00N115W. 
BY THU NIGHT SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 04.5N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 132W.

$$
MUNDELL




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