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085 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270228
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AXIS TO 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N102W AND IS MOVING W 
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE 
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT 
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N110W BY 24 
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 
12N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N118W AND IS MOVING W 
AROUND 5-10 KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 
13N118W TO THE LOW TO 07N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N TO 04N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG 
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND 
125W BY LATE WED NIGHT AS IT REACHES 09N123W...THEN FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AS IT REACHES 09N125W BY THU EVENING. 
NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W AND IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN 
THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF 
THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS WHILE AN 
AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW 
QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N134W BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO 
NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N127W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
30N133W TO 23N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA 
INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT 
SEAS N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD 
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED 
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS 
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS 
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY 
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.
 
$$ 
LEWITSKY




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