Deprecated: Function split() is deprecated in /var/www/vhosts/xcalak.info/httpdocs/scripts/weather/hamlib/HW3Plugins/FetchTropicalInfo.php on line 256 Costa Maya rentals weather service.
 
 
Welcome
 
Options: Tropical storms           Your Weather (Options)        International Weather
 
Enter your " Place, State", US Zip Code or ICAO:  
 
Active Tropical Systems Tropical Season Archive Monthly Summary
Basin Outlooks Basin Discussions Sea Surface Temps Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
453 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 
                                               
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 06N77.5W TO 
03N93W... THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 06N112W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 330 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 132W 
AND 137W.
 
DURING LATE WINTER TO EARLY SPRING SEASONS...FROM LATE FEBRUARY 
TO EARLY APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS 
TYPICALLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC...AND CAN 
BE BRIEFLY REPLACED BY A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE...ONE ON EACH 
SIDE OF THE EQUATOR. TODAY...A TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED S 
OF THE EQUATOR...CURRENTLY FROM 04S81W TO 03.5S96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01S TO 07.5S 
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE 
SOUTHERN ITCZ OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WAS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34.5N133W 
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 
18N120W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE 
TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT IN 
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELL. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON AS 
HIGH PRES MOVES SW AND WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA 
E OF 120W...WHERE A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE PRESENT. THE EXCEPT TO THIS REMAINS ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THIS 
GULF LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 30 KT 
OCCURRING N OF 14N...WHERE MAX SEAS ARE 11 FT. WINDS HAVE 
ALREADY VEERED TO SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
ADDITIONAL GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND FOR ABOUT 200 NM THROUGH 
TUESDAY...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCING THE WINDS TO 
NEAR 30 KT EACH NIGHT. 

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE BEEN REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND 
MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS. 
THESE SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO FADE DURING THE PAST 24 HOUR AND WILL 
DIMINISH TO 4 FT OR LESS ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW 
SWELL ARE REACHING THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION AND 
WILL MIX WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE TO BUILD SEAS 
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8-9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL NW OF LINE FROM 
30N118W TO 23N130W TO 18N140W BY TUE MORNING.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING...REACHING 20-25 
KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.
 
$$
STRIPLING




Costa Maya, Xcalak and Mahahual (Majahual) Support Association©