Deprecated: Function split() is deprecated in /var/www/vhosts/xcalak.info/httpdocs/scripts/weather/hamlib/HW3Plugins/FetchTropicalInfo.php on line 256 Costa Maya rentals weather service.
 
 
Welcome
 
Options: Tropical storms           Your Weather (Options)        International Weather
 
Enter your " Place, State", US Zip Code or ICAO:  
 
Active Tropical Systems Tropical Season Archive Monthly Summary
Basin Outlooks Basin Discussions Sea Surface Temps Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
534 
AXPZ20 KNHC 252159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N94W TO DRIVE 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. AN 1545 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS OVER THE REGION 
SHOWED WINDS TO GALE FORCE...AT A TIME WHEN WINDS ARE LIKELY 
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN WINDS 
ARE STRONGEST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE 
GALE FORCE WINDS BELIEVED TO BE IN PLACE NOW WILL NOT DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW 
ENDS ON SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE GAP WIND FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY 24-48 HOURS FROM 
NOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES 
SYSTEM. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN 
THIS AREA AFTER THAT TIME. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N94W 1010 MB 
TO 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N117W 1012 MB TO LOW PRES 13N130W 1012 MB TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 
NM S OF AXIS W OF 125W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                
1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N105W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS PERSIST 
OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. 
EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZES NEAR THE FRONT LIKELY IN NW SWELL. A JASON-2 PASS 
REVEALED SEAS ABOVE 8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN 
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 
HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE LARGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO 
THE NW. THE NW SWELL CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OUTRUN IT 
LATER TODAY AND BRING SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE TO MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W THROUGH MON MORNING. 

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE WESTERN LOW PRES 
SYSTEM NEAR 13N130W...ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER TROUGHING W OF 
THE AREA AND THE FACT THAT THE LOW IS UNDER THE REAR RIGHT 
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH.  

FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS OVER THE 
EASTERN WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR IN THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE 
MOISTURE HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 50 
MILLIMETERS S OF PANAMA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR 
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON 
MON.

$$
SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN




Costa Maya, Xcalak and Mahahual (Majahual) Support Association©