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424 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
S INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON 
NIGHT INTO TUE. N WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THE 
HIGH WIND EVENT COMMENCES AROUND 0000 UTC...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PEAK BETWEEN 35-40 KT WITHIN 6 HOURS. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY 
SHORT-LIVED HIGH WIND EVENT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12-13 FT 
TUE MORNING NEAR 15N95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 05N94W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W...AND W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
                                                
A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 19N. ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 0600-0700 UTC SHOW 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W. TRADE WINDS 
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER W WATERS THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N109W THROUGH 20N123W TO 
09N127W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN MANZANILLO 
AND MAZATLAN ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND MON.

GAP WINDS...                                                    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL AMERICA 
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 
IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH BEFORE NOON. 
SEAS TO 8 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL




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