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866 
AXPZ20 KNHC 041545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N88W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 05N96W...TO 08N110W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 08N116W... TO 03N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
03N122W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND 
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01S TO 02N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 01S TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...AND 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N119W TO 26N126W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N106W IN MEXICO...TO 23N120W TO 
21N133W...BEYOND 21N140W.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N112W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 29N106W-TO-21N140W LINE. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 16N103W 22N110W 25N125W BEYOND 30N140W. 
 
LARGE SOUTHWEST SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC LONG-PERIOD SWELL...THAT 
HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE LAST FEW 
DAYS...HAS BROUGHT 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WATERS THAT 
ARE FROM 120W EASTWARD. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COASTLINES FROM PERU TO COLOMBIA TO MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY...BEFORE THIS CURRENT SWELL EVENT ENDS 
LATER TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SWELL ALSO IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE MAXIMUM SEA 
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET. 

$$
MT




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