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970 
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 100.2W 
AT 30/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 355 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT 
5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW 
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING.  
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY 
EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL 
MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 09N89W TO 
1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO 08N107W TO 13N117W TO 10N134W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N E OF 84W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 
86W AND 89W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS NEAR 28N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N112W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS 
GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 115W. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THURSDAY REACHING A POSITION FROM 
30N132W TO 26N140W BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND FROM 30N128W TO 
24N140W BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...FRESH WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELL BEGINNING TO 
ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...BY LATE FRIDAY 
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH 
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 19N140W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST IN 
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ 
HUFFMAN




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